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Wednesday, 3 December 2014

Housing in 2015 Real Estate Market Consumers Tricky Handoff

What does 2015 have in store for the housing market? 9 years after the housing bubble peaked and 3 years after home prices bottomed, the boom and bust still cast a long shadow. None of the 5 measures we track in our Housing Barometer is back to normal yet, though 3 are getting close. 

The rebound effect drove the upturn after the bust, but is now fading. Price is no longer significantly undervalued and investor demand is falling. Ideally, strong economic and demographic fundamentals like job development and household shape would take up the slack. 

But the worthy cycle of gains in jobs and housing is comparatively weak, and that will slow the recovery in 2015. All the same, consumers are hopeful, according to our survey of 2,008 American adults conduct November 6-10, 2014.

Consumers Expect 2015 to Be Better, Especially for Selling a Home

Consumers are as optimistic about the housing market as at any point since the recovery started. Nearly 3-quarters 74% of respondents agreed that home rights was part of achieving their personal Real Estate field American Dream the same level as in our 2013 Q4 survey and slightly above the levels of the 3 previous years. 

For young adults, the dream has revived: 78% of 18-34 year-old answered yes to our American Dream question, up from 73% in 2013 Q4 and a low of 65% in 2011 Q3. Also, 93% of youthful renters plan to buy a home someday. That’s unchanged from 2012 Q4 despite rising home prices and deterioration affordability.

Which real estate actions do consumers think will pick up in 2015? All of them but especially selling. Fully 36% said 2015 will be much or a little better than 2014 for selling a home. Just 16% said 2015 will be much or a little worse, a difference of 20 % points. The rest of the respondents said 2015 would be neither better nor worse, or we are not sure. More consumers said 2015 will be better than 2014 for buying too. But the margin over those who said 2015 will be worse was not as wide.