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Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Jeff Adams Said Fewer New Mortgages but Upbeat Consumers

Jeff Adams Real Estate Seminar last week Said Fewer New Mortgages but Upbeat Consumers Mixed financial data this week gave us a fewer than clear view of the possible shock to housing and the road ahead, but in whole, the positive consumer vibes speak to an increase economy.

The employ front, we now have more information on July job openings, labor turnover, and separation which were all basically unchanged from June the overall level of job openings has not been top since 2000.

But weekly jobless claims came in higher than likely, pulling up the 4-week average, which was higher than the month prior. Continuing claims also increased, but that 4-week average was lower than a month ago.
It’s hard to tell if this is a blip or a trend.

The application composite, covering purchase application and refinances, fell 7.2percent over the last week in August. The Refinance Index was down a huge 11 percent, and the Purchase Index was down 3 percent. Year-over-year, the purchase index was down 12 percent. The purchase index is careful a leading needle of future home sales, so its movement is main. 

This could mean the context has shift to make it less of a consistent predictor. The change context is the tight credit situation that leads to high levels of cash purchases. It remains clearly clear and well known that requirement standards are very high.

The week ended more upbeat with Friday data on retail sales and consumer sentiment, both of which were significantly more positive than jobless claims and mortgage application data. Retail spending in July was revising upward and the 6 percent increase in August was twice the size of the July increase. The initial read on consumer opinion was higher than expected, up 2 percent over the last August number and up 9 percent over September 2013.

Consumers are positive and feeling much better about the economy, but overlay above and beyond the experienced mortgage standards are limiting who can buy.